I am still obsessed with soccer...still staying on top of the news...still very opinionated about it...delighted but nervous about Hargreaves (I have a deadly fear of great expectations)...delighted about Anderson and Nani, but don't know much about them, since I've not seen them play...but dreading the eventual departure of Giggs and Scholes...Closer to home, I'm dreading the arrival of "Temoc" Blanco (sorry, but he sounds like a jerk. An old jerk.)....dreading the departure of Justin Mapp for USMNT duty...mystified by the Fire's management decisions--why, oh why did Andy Herron have to go? Bakary Soumare may be the next big thing, but he's not a striker and what did we do to deserve a rebuilding year?

Back to historical fiction...reading it and writing it.

Why on earth would I notice an article in today's Chicago Tribune with the following title: Mark Cuban + math prof = NBA formula? I admire almost nothing about basketball—wait, do I admire anything about basketball? I suppose that the last minute or so can be exciting if there is some reason to care about the team. One of the few times that I've had a reason to care about basketball was when my brother worked for the Dallas Mavericks. He got tickets for us to see Bulls-Mavericks games several times back in the Michael Jordan glory days. If not for that, I would never be able to tell my great-great-grandchildren someday that I actually saw Mr. Jordan play basketball.  Of course, what I'm really looking forward to is telling them that I saw Los Galacticos play a game at Soldier Field a couple of years ago--I saw Beckham, Raul, Roberto Carlos, Luis Figo, and, oh yeah... Zinedine Zidane.

There are two reasons why I noticed the Trib article. Mr. Cuban owns the Mavericks. The other reason was that it made reference to math. I've had some exposure to math, math professors, economists who are wannabe mathematicians, math anxiety (sometimes belonging to my students and sometimes belonging to me). The Guy thinks it's hilarious that someone who would write down random numbers during second-grade addition quizzes grew up to teach a course in Mathematical Economics at a well-respected liberal arts college. Never say never.

I have heard it said that Mark Cuban has a somewhat unorthodox way of doing things. I had absolutely no idea that the man went so far as to employ a mathematician. Apparently Mr. Cuban fondly remembered one of his profs at Indiana University--Dr. Wayne Winston--and hired him to devise a "system" for analyzing basketball players’ on-court contributions. Dr. Winston has been with the Mavericks since 2000, shortly after Mr. Cuban purchased the team. And you know what--I was astonished that the Mavericks were good this year! They had been highly favored to win in this round of the playoffs, but they managed to be upset by whoever it was that they were playing. I think the last time that I paid attention to basketball the Mavericks were flirting with a record number of losses. Apparently, Dr. Winston's regression analysis has been useful. The good professor mentions that it's more difficult to isolate the impact of an individual basketball player because there are ten players on the court. Baseball lends itself to this sort of statistical analysis more easily because the interaction between hitter and pitcher is more easily quantified. Please see Michael Lewis's delightful Moneyball for more details.

Soccer would be even more difficult to model, given that there are twenty-two players on the pitch. And the game is beautiful precisely because of that big fat random error term. But who’s to say that a highly talented statistician couldn’t give it a try? Surely some of those go-go American businessmen who are snapping up EPL sides wouldn’t mind throwing a little cash at a soccer model! Maybe the new owners of Liverpool—Tom Hicks and George Gillett, Jr.—might be willing to learn from Mark Cuban’s example with the Mavericks.

Of course, I would vastly prefer that my favorite statistician confine his talents to helping Manchester United collect more trophies. But even if Malcolm Glazer could be convinced to purchase the best damn soccer regression analysis that money can buy, something tells me that that it wouldn’t stand a chance with the man who just won his ninth Premiership title—Sir Alex Ferguson. After all, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Just what can Sir Alex do to prevent a recurrence of Manchester United's late-season defensive debacle? Can lightning strike twice?

I am curious about the probability that any team could suffer a string of injuries like the one that has decimated United's defensive squad this spring. How unlikely is it that Rio, Vidic, Gary Neville, Silvestre, and Evra have all been sidelined for varying periods and during critical games? Debacle is the only word that can describe yesterday's defensive performance at the San Siro. I suppose that Sir Alex was desperate to get Nemanja Vidic--who's been rock-solid all year--back into the lineup after his month-long absence due to a broken collarbone. To my eye, Vidic was not yet fit for a return to action. Not that I mean to devalue the spectacular efforts of Kaka, Gattuso & Co. They would have been difficult to contain under the best of circumstances. If only Rio and Vidic had been perfectly healthy, United might have been able to come away with that priceless draw. So I’ll be looking for news that Sir Alex has found a way to add defensive depth during the summer.

Good news: it's May and the weather in Chicago is considerably more friendly. Bad news: it's May and Premiership action ends in ten days, not counting the FA Cup final. Even though I will suffer without my weekend fix of English football for a mere three months, the end of the season is always a bit sad for me. Especially after my favorite team has just been humiliated in a major European competition.

That's why we Yanks should be ever so grateful for Major League Soccer. In two short weeks I'll be at Toyota Park to watch the Fire vs. FC Dallas and in less than an hour there's Thursday night football: DC United vs. New England. And it's in HD! (Oh for the day when we get the Premiership in HD. Although it was especially awful to watch Gattuso in HD during yesterday's match...). Now there are two reasons to watch TV on Thursday nights: the MLS game and The Office.

Speaking of The Office, I can't resist the temptation to rile the Brits with an outrageous idea that's been floating around my head for several weeks. I was an early devotee of the original British series that was the brainchild of Ricky Gervais. The first season was especially hilarious. I was skeptical when I learned that we were going to open an Office of our very own in Scranton, PA. How could the American version be as funny as the subtle and ironic depiction of the pointless antics of those Slough paper merchants?

I was wrong.

There's nothing subtle about Steve Carrell's brilliant portrayal of Dunder Mifflin's petty megalomaniac, Michael Scott. But the American version of The Office has been, if you’ll pardon the expression, a grand slam. And thus my latest wild and crazy notion:

We took the Brits’ version of The Office and fashioned it into our very own, highly entertaining television show. Who’s to say that we can't do the same with football? That is, take a brilliant original, infuse it with some home-grown talent, season it with our very own flavor, and, er, hit a grand slam?

Just a thought.